Chapecoense-sc vs Vasco DA Gama – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Vasco DA Gama at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Chapecoense-sc vs Vasco DA Gama encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Chapecoense-sc host Vasco DA Gama at in Serie A, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 29 July 2026 at 20:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Chapecoense-sc — All Games: 0W 2D 8L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 0.20 points per game. Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Chapecoense-sc, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at , Chapecoense-sc have gone 1W 4D 5L this season (10 games, 0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Serie A games this season, Vasco DA Gama have recorded 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Vasco DA Gama, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Vasco DA Gama's away record: 0W 4D 6L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Vasco DA Gama — 0.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (0.90 vs 0.20). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Chapecoense-sc have won 0, Vasco DA Gama 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Feb 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Chapecoense-sc in-play and half-time data (20 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 40% of games.
Vasco DA Gama in-play and half-time data (20 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 30% of cases; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Chapecoense-sc 60% and Vasco DA Gama 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chapecoense-sc 50% | Vasco DA Gama 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chapecoense-sc 1.24 xG and Vasco DA Gama 1.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chapecoense-sc attack 0.762 / defence 1.722 | Vasco DA Gama attack 0.945 / defence 1.141. League average goals — home 1.430 / away 1.126. Chapecoense-sc's attack strength of 0.762 is below the league average — the 1.24 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 19 Chapecoense-sc games / 57 Vasco DA Gama games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chapecoense-sc 25% | Draw 24% | Vasco DA Gama 51%. Fair-value odds: Chapecoense-sc 4.00 | Draw 4.17 | Vasco DA Gama 1.96. Vasco DA Gama hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.07. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.07 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.24 / 1.83) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Vasco DA Gama are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Vasco DA Gama offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.07 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: Chapecoense-sc 70% | Vasco DA Gama 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chapecoense-sc vs Vasco DA Gama | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: • Kick-off: Wednesday 29 Jul 2026, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chapecoense-sc 25% | Draw 24% | Vasco DA Gama 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 60% | xG Chapecoense-sc 1.24 / Vasco DA Gama 1.83 • Poisson strength factors: Chapecoense-sc attack 0.762 / def 1.722 | Vasco DA Gama attack 0.945 / def 1.141 | league avg home 1.430 / away 1.126 • Poisson stance: Vasco DA Gama (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Chapecoense-sc xG
Expected Goals
1.83
Vasco DA Gama xG
60%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chapecoense-sc vs Vasco DA Gama kick off?
Chapecoense-sc vs Vasco DA Gama kicked off at 20:00 on Wednesday 29 July 2026.
What competition is Chapecoense-sc vs Vasco DA Gama part of?
Chapecoense-sc vs Vasco DA Gama is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Chapecoense-sc vs Vasco DA Gama?
Our statistical model gives Chapecoense-sc a 25% chance of winning, Vasco DA Gama a 51% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Vasco DA Gama the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chapecoense-sc vs Vasco DA Gama?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Chapecoense-sc and Vasco DA Gama will score (BTTS).
Will Chapecoense-sc vs Vasco DA Gama have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chapecoense-sc and Vasco DA Gama?
Record (1 meetings): Chapecoense-sc 0W | Draws 1 | Vasco DA Gama 0W.
What form are Chapecoense-sc and Vasco DA Gama in?
Chapecoense-sc (all comps): 0W-2D-8L in 10 | 0.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-L-L-D. Vasco DA Gama (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Chapecoense-sc's attack rating (0.76) and Vasco DA Gama's defence rating (1.14), the model arrives at 1.24 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Vasco DA Gama's attack versus Chapecoense-sc's defence, projects 1.83 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 19/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Vasco DA Gama Win
25%
3.97
24%
4.13
51%
1.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
0 – 1
8.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Chapecoense-sc xG
Total xG
3.07
1.83
Vasco DA Gama xG
3.97
25%
Home win
4.13
24%
Draw
1.98
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.53
Clean Sheet
16%
6.25
29%
3.46
Win to Nil
4%
24.78
15%
6.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 8.5 | 7.8 | 4.7 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 5.7 | 10.5 | 9.6 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 6.5 | 6.0 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chapecoense-sc vs Vasco DA Gama?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Chapecoense-sc and Vasco DA Gama expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Chapecoense-sc and 1.83 for Vasco DA Gama, a combined total of 3.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Chapecoense-sc vs Vasco DA Gama?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Chapecoense-sc come into this having played 20 games, going 1W 7D 12L for 0.50 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-D. The sample for Chapecoense-sc is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Vasco DA Gama sit at 1.05 PPG from 20 outings (5W 6D 9L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for Vasco DA Gama is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Vasco DA Gama carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.55 PPG clear of Chapecoense-sc — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Chapecoense-sc's home form reads 0W 4D 5L across 9 games on their own ground, a 0.44 PPG return.
Away from home, Vasco DA Gama have taken 0.44 points per game from 9 outings (0W 4D 5L). That's a step down from their 1.05 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Vasco DA Gama's season.
The Goals Picture
Chapecoense-sc are averaging 0.95 goals scored and 2.05 conceded per game recently; Vasco DA Gama are on 1.15 scored and 1.55 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Chapecoense-sc have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Vasco DA Gama in 70%.
Last 20 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chapecoense-sc
Blended
Vasco DA Gama
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chapecoense-sc and Vasco DA Gama in coming into this match?
Chapecoense-sc have gone 1W 7D 12L in their last 20 games (0.50 PPG), while Vasco DA Gama have gone 5W 6D 9L in their last 20 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chapecoense-sc at home or Vasco DA Gama away?
Chapecoense-sc's home record (0.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chapecoense-sc at home: 0.44 PPG; Vasco DA Gama away: 0.44 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Chapecoense-sc and Vasco DA Gama runs to 1 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to February 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 5 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Last 1 Meetings
0
Chapecoense-sc
1
Draws
0
Vasco DA Gama
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chapecoense-sc and Vasco DA Gama?
From 1 meetings on record, Chapecoense-sc have won 0, Vasco DA Gama have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Chapecoense-sc and Vasco DA Gama last play each other?
They last met on 5 February 2026, when Vasco DA Gama 1-1 Chapecoense-sc.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Chapecoense-sc are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches.
Vasco DA Gama are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Chapecoense-sc at 67%, Vasco DA Gama at 78%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Chapecoense-sc and 56% for Vasco DA Gama. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 56% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Chapecoense-sc have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chapecoense-sc home games / Vasco DA Gama away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chapecoense-sc play Vasco DA Gama?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Chapecoense-sc's games and 78% of Vasco DA Gama's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Chapecoense-sc vs Vasco DA Gama usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Chapecoense-sc's matches and 56% of Vasco DA Gama's.
Do Chapecoense-sc and Vasco DA Gama tend to score early?
Chapecoense-sc have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Vasco DA Gama in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Chapecoense-sc's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chapecoense-sc and Vasco DA Gama finished level at 0-0 at , Regular Season - 21, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chapecoense-sc 1.24 xG and Vasco DA Gama 1.83 xG, a combined 3.07. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Chapecoense-sc fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Vasco DA Gama landed 1.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chapecoense-sc attack 0.76 / defence 1.72 against Vasco DA Gama attack 0.94 / defence 1.14, drawn from 19/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chapecoense-sc 25% | Draw 24% | Vasco DA Gama 51%, with Vasco DA Gama to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chapecoense-sc 50%, Vasco DA Gama 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chapecoense-sc's trading profile (20 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Vasco DA Gama's trading profile (20 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Vasco DA Gama arrived the stronger side — 1.05 PPG against 0.50. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Chapecoense-sc (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.44 average — tighter than their form line. Vasco DA Gama (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.11 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.89 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.