Chapecoense-sc 1-2 RB Bragantino – Result & Analysis

📋

Poisson model rates RB Bragantino at 45% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Chapecoense-sc face RB Bragantino.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Chapecoense-sc and RB Bragantino meet at Arena Condá in Serie A (matchday 14). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 3 May 2026 at 22:30 UK time.

Current Form

RB Bragantino (all games): 4W 0D 6L across their last 10 — 1.20 points per game. Last five: W L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.

On the road, RB Bragantino have gone 1W 1D 8L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 2 H2H matches in our data, the wins are level at 1 apiece, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 2 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 11 Sep 2021, ended Chapecoense-sc 2–1 RB Bragantino — a Chapecoense-sc win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Chapecoense-sc 1.15 xG and RB Bragantino 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chapecoense-sc attack 0.797 / defence 1.617 | RB Bragantino attack 0.840 / defence 0.997. League average goals — home 1.447 / away 1.085. Chapecoense-sc's attack rating of 0.797 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.15. Chapecoense-sc's defence rating of 1.617 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing RB Bragantino's projected output up. Data: built from Chapecoense-sc's last 12 games and RB Bragantino's last 51.

Result probabilities: Chapecoense-sc 30% | Draw 26% | RB Bragantino 45%. Fair-value odds: Chapecoense-sc 3.39 | Draw 3.87 | RB Bragantino 2.24. RB Bragantino hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, RB Bragantino are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on RB Bragantino if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.62 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights