Chapecoense-sc vs Mirassol – Pre-Match Analysis

Poisson model rates Mirassol at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Chapecoense-sc vs Mirassol fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Pre-Match Analysis

Chapecoense-sc and Mirassol meet at Arena Condá in Serie A, Regular Season - 34. This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 3 November 2026 at 22:30 UTC.

Form

Chapecoense-sc (all games): 3W 1D 6L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

In front of their own supporters this season, Chapecoense-sc have posted 2W 2D 6L at Arena Condá — 0.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Mirassol's overall Serie A record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: D L W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.

When travelling in Serie A this season, Mirassol have posted 1W 3D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.00 PPG for Chapecoense-sc against 1.30 for Mirassol. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Chapecoense-sc have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, Mirassol in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Chapecoense-sc lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 May 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Data

Chapecoense-sc goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (32 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.

Mirassol goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (32 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Chapecoense-sc 62% and Mirassol 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chapecoense-sc 59% | Mirassol 44%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Chapecoense-sc 1.31 xG and Mirassol 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chapecoense-sc attack 0.878 / defence 1.584 | Mirassol attack 0.763 / defence 1.013. League average goals — home 1.470 / away 1.124. Data: 32 Chapecoense-sc games / 71 Mirassol games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Chapecoense-sc 34% | Draw 30% | Mirassol 36%. Fair-value odds: Chapecoense-sc 2.94 | Draw 3.33 | Mirassol 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Mirassol as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Mirassol if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.67 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 50% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.

Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Chapecoense-sc 80% | Mirassol 60% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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