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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Ceara edge out Vitoria 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Ceara beat Vitoria 1-0 at Estádio Municipal Presidente Getúlio Vargas, Regular Season - 7, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Ceara 1.42 xG and Vitoria 1.02 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Vitoria landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ceara attack 0.96 / defence 1.06 against Vitoria attack 1.11 / defence 1.06, drawn from 6/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Ceara 43% | Draw 32% | Vitoria 24%, with Ceara to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights