🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Ceara edge out Vasco DA Gama 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Ceara beat Vasco DA Gama 2-1 at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo, Regular Season - 4, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Ceara 1.61 xG and Vasco DA Gama 0.80 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ceara attack 0.97 / defence 1.00 against Vasco DA Gama attack 0.88 / defence 1.20, drawn from 3/41 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Ceara 53% | Draw 32% | Vasco DA Gama 15%, with Ceara to win its most likely call at 53%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights