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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Ceara and Sao Paulo share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo, Regular Season - 6, as Ceara and Sao Paulo drew 1-1 in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Ceara 1.27 xG and Sao Paulo 0.99 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ceara attack 0.96 / defence 1.04 against Sao Paulo attack 1.06 / defence 0.92, drawn from 5/43 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Ceara 40% | Draw 34% | Sao Paulo 26%, with Ceara to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights