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Dominant Ceara run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Santos.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Ceara beat Santos 3-0 at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo, Regular Season - 27, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Ceara 1.02 xG and Santos 1.03 xG, a combined 2.05. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Ceara beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Santos landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ceara attack 0.63 / defence 1.02 against Santos attack 0.98 / defence 1.16, drawn from 25/25 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Ceara 35% | Draw 30% | Santos 35%, with Ceara to win its most likely call at 35%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ceara 28%, Santos 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Ceara's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.

Santos's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Ceara 1.24 PPG, Santos 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ceara win broke the near-deadlock. Ceara (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.92 average — above their attacking norm. Santos (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights