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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Palmeiras cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Ceara.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Palmeiras beat Ceara 1-3 at Estádio Governador Plácido Castelo, Regular Season - 38, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Ceara 1.01 xG and Palmeiras 1.43 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Palmeiras outscored their 1.43 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ceara attack 0.74 / defence 1.03 against Palmeiras attack 1.35 / defence 0.90, drawn from 37/75 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Ceara 27% | Draw 27% | Palmeiras 47%, with Palmeiras to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ceara 27%, Palmeiras 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Ceara's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did.

Palmeiras's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Palmeiras arrived the stronger side — 1.97 PPG against 1.16. That form edge translated into the three points. Ceara (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Palmeiras (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.56 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights