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Mirassol cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Ceara.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Mirassol beat Ceara 0-2 at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo, Regular Season - 16, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Ceara 0.95 xG and Mirassol 0.90 xG, a combined 1.84. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Ceara fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Mirassol outscored their 0.90 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ceara attack 0.76 / defence 1.02 against Mirassol attack 1.00 / defence 0.98, drawn from 14/13 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Ceara 35% | Draw 32% | Mirassol 32%, with Ceara to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Mirassol win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 55% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 35% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ceara 23%, Mirassol 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Ceara's trading profile (13 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 31% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Mirassol's trading profile (13 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Ceara 1.31 PPG, Mirassol 1.62 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mirassol win broke the near-deadlock. Ceara (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.57 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Mirassol (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.14 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights