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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Ceara and Fortaleza EC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo, Regular Season - 32, as Ceara and Fortaleza EC drew 1-1 in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Ceara 1.24 xG and Fortaleza EC 0.89 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ceara attack 0.76 / defence 0.99 against Fortaleza EC attack 0.96 / defence 1.15, drawn from 31/68 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Ceara 44% | Draw 29% | Fortaleza EC 27%, with Ceara to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ceara 26%, Fortaleza EC 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 39%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Ceara's trading profile (31 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Fortaleza EC's trading profile (31 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Ceara 1.23 PPG, Fortaleza EC 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights