🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Ceara and Flamengo share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Ceara and Flamengo finished level at 1-1 at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo, Regular Season - 18, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Ceara 0.72 xG and Flamengo 1.15 xG, a combined 1.88. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ceara attack 0.70 / defence 1.11 against Flamengo attack 1.11 / defence 0.82, drawn from 16/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Ceara 23% | Draw 32% | Flamengo 46%, with Flamengo to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 56% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 34% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ceara 31%, Flamengo 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 31%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Ceara's trading profile (16 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Flamengo's trading profile (16 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 69% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Flamengo arrived the stronger side — 2.25 PPG against 1.31. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights