🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Botafogo cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Ceara.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Botafogo beat Ceara 0-2 at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo, Regular Season - 29, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Ceara 0.87 xG and Botafogo 0.96 xG, a combined 1.83. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Ceara fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Botafogo outscored their 0.96 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ceara attack 0.75 / defence 0.94 against Botafogo attack 0.99 / defence 0.80, drawn from 27/66 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Ceara 31% | Draw 33% | Botafogo 36%, with Botafogo to win its most likely call at 36%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 55% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 31% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ceara 30%, Botafogo 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 35%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Ceara's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Botafogo's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 30% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Ceara 1.30 PPG, Botafogo 1.56 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Botafogo win broke the near-deadlock. Ceara (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.08 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.69 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Botafogo (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights