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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Atletico-MG defy the odds to beat Ceara 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Atletico-MG beat Ceara 0-1 at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo, Regular Season - 11, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Ceara 1.20 xG and Atletico-MG 0.73 xG, a combined 1.92. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Ceara fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ceara attack 0.98 / defence 0.91 against Atletico-MG attack 0.93 / defence 0.95, drawn from 9/48 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Ceara 46% | Draw 32% | Atletico-MG 22%, with Ceara to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a Atletico-MG win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 58% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights