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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Botafogo run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Vasco DA Gama.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Botafogo beat Vasco DA Gama 3-0 at Estadio Olimpico Nilton Santos, Regular Season - 32, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Botafogo 1.40 xG and Vasco DA Gama 1.80 xG, a combined 3.20. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Botafogo beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Vasco DA Gama landed 1.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Botafogo attack 1.06 / defence 1.31 against Vasco DA Gama attack 1.45 / defence 0.95, drawn from 69/69 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Botafogo 30% | Draw 23% | Vasco DA Gama 47%, with Vasco DA Gama to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual Botafogo win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Botafogo 39%, Vasco DA Gama 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Botafogo's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and duly kept one.

Vasco DA Gama's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Botafogo arrived the stronger side — 1.84 PPG against 1.33. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Botafogo (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.68 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.91 average — tighter than their form line. Vasco DA Gama (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.62 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights