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Prediction vindicated as Botafogo edge out Sport Recife 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Botafogo beat Sport Recife 3-2 at Estadio Olimpico Nilton Santos, Regular Season - 34, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Botafogo 1.95 xG and Sport Recife 0.76 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Botafogo beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Sport Recife outscored their 0.76 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Botafogo attack 1.14 / defence 1.13 against Sport Recife attack 0.67 / defence 1.23, drawn from 71/33 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Botafogo 66% | Draw 21% | Sport Recife 14%, with Botafogo to win its most likely call at 66%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Botafogo 33%, Sport Recife 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 39%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Botafogo's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 27% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.

Sport Recife's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Botafogo arrived the stronger side — 1.58 PPG against 0.52. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Botafogo (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.81 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sport Recife (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.56 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights