🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Botafogo and Santos share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Estadio Olimpico Nilton Santos, Regular Season - 30, as Botafogo and Santos drew 2-2 in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Botafogo 1.88 xG and Santos 1.10 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Santos outscored their 1.10 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Botafogo attack 1.03 / defence 1.24 against Santos attack 0.92 / defence 1.27, drawn from 67/28 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Botafogo 56% | Draw 22% | Santos 22%, with Botafogo to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Botafogo 32%, Santos 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Botafogo's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.

Santos's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Botafogo arrived the stronger side — 1.61 PPG against 1.11. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Botafogo (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Santos (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.93 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights