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Dominant Botafogo run riot with a 4-1 hammering of RB Bragantino.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Botafogo beat RB Bragantino 4-1 at Estadio Olimpico Nilton Santos, Regular Season - 22, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Botafogo 1.30 xG and RB Bragantino 0.92 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Botafogo beat their projection by 2.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Botafogo attack 0.90 / defence 0.95 against RB Bragantino attack 0.88 / defence 1.09, drawn from 57/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Botafogo 45% | Draw 28% | RB Bragantino 26%, with Botafogo to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Botafogo 39%, RB Bragantino 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Botafogo's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time, and conceded here.

RB Bragantino's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Botafogo arrived the stronger side — 1.95 PPG against 1.23. That form edge translated into the three points. Botafogo (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.61 average — above their attacking norm. RB Bragantino (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.39 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights