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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Botafogo and Mirassol share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Estadio Olimpico Nilton Santos, Regular Season - 12, as Botafogo and Mirassol drew 3-3 in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Botafogo 1.13 xG and Mirassol 1.04 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Botafogo beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Mirassol outscored their 1.04 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Botafogo attack 1.08 / defence 0.96 against Mirassol attack 0.99 / defence 0.78, drawn from 59/21 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Botafogo 38% | Draw 29% | Mirassol 33%, with Botafogo to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Botafogo 29%, Mirassol 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Botafogo's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 24% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and conceded here.

Mirassol's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Botafogo 1.67 PPG, Mirassol 1.81 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Botafogo (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.80 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.90 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Mirassol (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights