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Botafogo cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Juventude.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Botafogo beat Juventude 2-0 at Estadio Olimpico Nilton Santos, Regular Season - 2, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Botafogo 1.51 xG and Juventude 0.96 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Juventude landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Botafogo attack 1.03 / defence 0.94 against Juventude attack 1.10 / defence 1.07, drawn from 39/39 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Botafogo 47% | Draw 32% | Juventude 21%, with Botafogo to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Botafogo 45%, Juventude 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Botafogo's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and duly kept one.

Juventude's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Botafogo arrived the stronger side — 2.08 PPG against 1.18. That form edge translated into the three points. Juventude (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.11 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights