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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Botafogo edge out Gremio 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Botafogo beat Gremio 3-2 at Estadio Olimpico Nilton Santos, Regular Season - 35, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Botafogo 1.97 xG and Gremio 1.23 xG, a combined 3.20. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Botafogo beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Botafogo attack 1.18 / defence 1.21 against Gremio attack 0.99 / defence 1.18, drawn from 72/72 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Botafogo 55% | Draw 22% | Gremio 24%, with Botafogo to win its most likely call at 55%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Botafogo 40%, Gremio 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Botafogo's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.

Gremio's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Botafogo arrived the stronger side — 1.86 PPG against 1.22. That form edge translated into the three points. Botafogo (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.75 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.92 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Gremio (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.97 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights