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Botafogo cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Fluminense.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Botafogo beat Fluminense 2-0 at Estadio Olimpico Nilton Santos, Regular Season - 6, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Botafogo 1.28 xG and Fluminense 0.93 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Fluminense landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Botafogo attack 1.07 / defence 1.00 against Fluminense attack 1.04 / defence 0.84, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Botafogo 41% | Draw 35% | Fluminense 24%, with Botafogo to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Botafogo 43%, Fluminense 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Botafogo's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.

Fluminense's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Botafogo arrived the stronger side — 1.88 PPG against 1.34. Form held, and they took the win. Fluminense (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.82 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights