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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Flamengo run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Botafogo.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Flamengo beat Botafogo 0-3 at Estadio Olimpico Nilton Santos, Regular Season - 28, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Botafogo 1.18 xG and Flamengo 1.30 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Botafogo fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Flamengo outscored their 1.30 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Botafogo attack 1.11 / defence 1.08 against Flamengo attack 1.18 / defence 0.74, drawn from 65/64 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Botafogo 33% | Draw 27% | Flamengo 39%, with Flamengo to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Botafogo 38%, Flamengo 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Botafogo's trading profile (64 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Flamengo's trading profile (64 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Botafogo 1.91 PPG, Flamengo 1.95 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Flamengo win broke the near-deadlock. Botafogo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.74 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.84 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Flamengo (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.55 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.97 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights