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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Cruzeiro cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Botafogo.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Cruzeiro beat Botafogo 0-2 at Estadio Olimpico Nilton Santos, Regular Season - 18, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Botafogo 0.98 xG and Cruzeiro 0.91 xG, a combined 1.89. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Botafogo fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Cruzeiro outscored their 0.91 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Botafogo attack 1.15 / defence 0.94 against Cruzeiro attack 1.05 / defence 0.67, drawn from 53/55 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Botafogo 36% | Draw 32% | Cruzeiro 32%, with Botafogo to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Cruzeiro win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 56% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Botafogo 38%, Cruzeiro 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Botafogo's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 51% of the time, and conceded here.

Cruzeiro's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Botafogo arrived the stronger side — 1.98 PPG against 1.55. Form was overturned, with Cruzeiro winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Botafogo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.73 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.69 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Cruzeiro (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.85 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights