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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Botafogo and Coritiba share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Estadio Olimpico Nilton Santos, Regular Season - 11, as Botafogo and Coritiba drew 2-2 in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Botafogo 1.80 xG and Coritiba 1.35 xG, a combined 3.15. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Botafogo attack 1.23 / defence 1.28 against Coritiba attack 1.04 / defence 0.98, drawn from 47/10 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Botafogo 48% | Draw 24% | Coritiba 28%, with Botafogo to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights