Botafogo 2-2 Coritiba – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Botafogo at 48% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Botafogo face Coritiba.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Coritiba travel to Estadio Olimpico Nilton Santos to take on Botafogo in Serie A (matchday 11). The game is scheduled for Sunday 12 April 2026 at 20:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Botafogo stand at 5W 5D 0L — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W D D W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Botafogo's home record over their last 10 home games: 7W 2D 1L (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 4 H2H matches, Botafogo have won 2, Coritiba 1, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 30 Nov 2023, ended Botafogo 1–1 Coritiba — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Botafogo 1.80 xG and Coritiba 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Botafogo attack 1.232 / defence 1.278 | Coritiba attack 1.041 / defence 0.983. League average goals — home 1.488 / away 1.013. Botafogo's defence rating of 1.278 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Coritiba's projected output up. Data: built from Botafogo's last 47 games and Coritiba's last 10.
Result probabilities: Botafogo 48% | Draw 24% | Coritiba 28%. Fair-value odds: Botafogo 2.10 | Draw 4.14 | Coritiba 3.54. Botafogo hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS Yes probability 62% | Total xG 3.15. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.15 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% — both xG figures (1.80 / 1.35) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Botafogo at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Botafogo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.15 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Botafogo vs Coritiba | Competition: Serie A, matchday 11 | Venue: Estadio Olimpico Nilton Santos • Kick-off: Sunday 12 April 2026 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Botafogo 48% | Draw 24% | Coritiba 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% (Under 39%) | BTTS Yes 62% (No 38%) | xG Botafogo 1.80 / Coritiba 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Botafogo attack 1.232 / def 1.278 | Coritiba attack 1.041 / def 0.983 | league avg home 1.488 / away 1.013 • Poisson stance: Botafogo (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.80
Botafogo xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Coritiba xG
62%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Botafogo vs Coritiba FAQs
What time does Botafogo vs Coritiba kick off?
Botafogo vs Coritiba kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Sunday 12 April 2026 at Estadio Olimpico Nilton Santos.
What was the final score in Botafogo vs Coritiba?
Botafogo 2 - 2 Coritiba.
Where is Botafogo vs Coritiba being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Olimpico Nilton Santos.
What competition is Botafogo vs Coritiba part of?
Botafogo vs Coritiba is a Serie A fixture (matchday 11) (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Botafogo vs Coritiba?
Our statistical model gives Botafogo a 48% chance of winning, Coritiba a 28% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Botafogo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Botafogo vs Coritiba?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Botafogo and Coritiba will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Botafogo vs Coritiba have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Botafogo's attack at 1.23x the league average against Coritiba's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 1.80 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Coritiba's attack versus Botafogo's defence, projects 1.35 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Botafogo's last 47 games and Coritiba's last 10 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-2 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Botafogo Win
48%
2.10
24%
4.14
28%
3.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
7.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.80
Botafogo xG
Total xG
3.15
1.35
Coritiba xG
2.10
48%
Home win
4.14
24%
Draw
3.54
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.60
38%
BTTS No
2.66
Clean Sheet
26%
3.85
16%
6.07
Win to Nil
12%
8.08
5%
21.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 5.8 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 10.4 | 7.0 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 9.4 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 5.6 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Botafogo vs Coritiba Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Botafogo vs Coritiba?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Botafogo and Coritiba expected to score?
The model projects 1.80 expected goals for Botafogo and 1.35 for Coritiba, a combined total of 3.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Botafogo vs Coritiba?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Botafogo
Pre-Season
Coritiba
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
Botafogo (Home) vs Coritiba (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Botafogo
Pre-Season
Coritiba
Pre-Season
No results found for this venue split.
No results found for this venue split.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 6 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from May 2022. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was as recently as 12 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The most recent 3 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 30 Jul 2023, when Botafogo won Botafogo 4-1 Coritiba.
Botafogo's record when hosting Coritiba specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Botafogo
3
Draws
1
Coritiba
Recent Meetings
❓ Botafogo vs Coritiba H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Botafogo and Coritiba?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Botafogo have won 2, Coritiba have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Botafogo and Coritiba last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 12 October 2026: Coritiba 1-1 Botafogo.
Who has won more matches between Botafogo and Coritiba?
Botafogo have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Botafogo home games / Coritiba away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Botafogo and Coritiba share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estadio Olimpico Nilton Santos, Regular Season - 11, as Botafogo and Coritiba drew 2-2 in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Botafogo 1.80 xG and Coritiba 1.35 xG, a combined 3.15. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Botafogo attack 1.23 / defence 1.28 against Coritiba attack 1.04 / defence 0.98, drawn from 47/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Botafogo 48% | Draw 24% | Coritiba 28%, with Botafogo to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.