Botafogo 4-1 Coritiba – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Botafogo at 75% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Botafogo vs Coritiba encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 17 sees Coritiba travel to Estádio Nilton Santos to take on Botafogo. The game is scheduled for Sunday 30 July 2023, 20:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Botafogo stand at 8W 1D 1L from 10 Serie A matches — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.30 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.30 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 8 clean sheets from 10 games (80%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Botafogo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Botafogo's home record at Estádio Nilton Santos: 9W 0D 1L from 10 Serie A appearances (2.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.30 conceded per game. 8 clean sheets from 10 home games (80%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio Nilton Santos. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Serie A games this season, Coritiba have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Coritiba, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Coritiba's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Botafogo are in the better shape of the two on current Serie A data — 1.30 PPG ahead (2.50 vs 1.20). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Botafogo have won 1, Coritiba 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.5 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 17 Sep 2022, ended 2–0 with Botafogo winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Botafogo in-play tendencies (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games).
Coritiba in-play tendencies (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Botafogo 37% versus Coritiba 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Botafogo 37% | Coritiba 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Botafogo 2.24 xG and Coritiba 0.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Botafogo attack 1.225 / defence 0.582 | Coritiba attack 0.956 / defence 1.401. League average goals — home 1.306 / away 1.000. Coritiba bring a strong defensive rating of 1.401 — this is suppressing Botafogo's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Botafogo's defence rating of 0.582 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 54 Botafogo games / 54 Coritiba games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Botafogo 75% | Draw 18% | Coritiba 7%. Fair-value odds: Botafogo 1.33 | Draw 5.56 | Coritiba 14.29. The model has a clear lean to Botafogo (75%) — a 68pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Botafogo at 75% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.80 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 39% on No. Form rates corroborate: Botafogo 10% | Coritiba 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Botafogo vs Coritiba | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Estádio Nilton Santos • Kick-off: Sunday 30 Jul 2023, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Botafogo 75% | Draw 18% | Coritiba 7% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 39% | xG Botafogo 2.24 / Coritiba 0.56 • Poisson strength factors: Botafogo attack 1.225 / def 0.582 | Coritiba attack 0.956 / def 1.401 | league avg home 1.306 / away 1.000 • Poisson stance: Botafogo (75%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.24
Botafogo xG
Expected Goals
0.56
Coritiba xG
39%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Botafogo vs Coritiba kick off?
Botafogo vs Coritiba kicked off at 20:00 on Sunday 30 July 2023 at Estádio Nilton Santos.
What was the final score in Botafogo vs Coritiba?
Botafogo 4 - 1 Coritiba.
Where is Botafogo vs Coritiba being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Nilton Santos.
What competition is Botafogo vs Coritiba part of?
Botafogo vs Coritiba is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Botafogo vs Coritiba?
Our statistical model gives Botafogo a 75% chance of winning, Coritiba a 7% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Botafogo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Botafogo vs Coritiba?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Botafogo and Coritiba will score (BTTS).
Will Botafogo vs Coritiba have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Botafogo and Coritiba?
Record (2 meetings): Botafogo 1W | Draws 0 | Coritiba 1W.
What form are Botafogo and Coritiba in?
Botafogo (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.30 | L5 W-W-W-W-D. Coritiba (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Botafogo's attack at 1.23x the league average against Coritiba's defence at 1.40x — combine the two and it projects 2.24 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Coritiba's attack versus Botafogo's defence, projects 0.56 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.7%), 3-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Botafogo Win
75%
1.33
18%
5.60
7%
14.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
15.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
13.7%
Home win
3 – 0
11.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.24
Botafogo xG
Total xG
2.80
0.56
Coritiba xG
1.33
75%
Home win
5.60
18%
Draw
14.41
7%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.57
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
57%
1.74
11%
9.42
Win to Nil
43%
2.32
1%
135.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1 | 13.7 | 7.6 | 2.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 15.3 | 8.5 | 2.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 11.4 | 6.4 | 1.8 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 6.4 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Botafogo vs Coritiba?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Botafogo and Coritiba expected to score?
The model projects 2.24 expected goals for Botafogo and 0.56 for Coritiba, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Botafogo vs Coritiba?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 75%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 54 outings, Botafogo have picked up 1.72 PPG on a 28W 9D 17L record — W-W-W-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Botafogo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Coritiba's form line: 15W 11D 28L from 54 games, 1.04 PPG, last five L-W-W-D-W. The sample for Coritiba is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Botafogo are the form team by 0.68 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Coritiba.
Venue Form
On home soil, Botafogo have posted 1.70 PPG from 27 outings (14W 4D 9L).
On the road, Coritiba have gone 2W 4D 21L from 27 away games — 0.37 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.04 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Coritiba's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Botafogo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Botafogo are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 0.96 conceded per game recently; Coritiba are on 1.02 scored and 1.63 conceded.
Defensively: Botafogo have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 54 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Botafogo
Blended
Coritiba
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Botafogo and Coritiba in coming into this match?
Botafogo have gone 28W 9D 17L in their last 54 games (1.72 PPG), while Coritiba have gone 15W 11D 28L in their last 54 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Botafogo at home or Coritiba away?
Botafogo's home record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Botafogo at home: 1.70 PPG; Coritiba away: 0.37 PPG.
Have Botafogo or Coritiba been keeping clean sheets recently?
Botafogo have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Coritiba in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
5 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 12 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Jul 2023, when Botafogo won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Botafogo's record when hosting Coritiba specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Botafogo
2
Draws
1
Coritiba
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Botafogo and Coritiba?
From 5 meetings on record, Botafogo have won 2, Coritiba have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Botafogo and Coritiba last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2026, when Botafogo 2-2 Coritiba.
Who has won more matches between Botafogo and Coritiba?
Botafogo have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Botafogo see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Coritiba are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Botafogo 30%, Coritiba 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 30% (Botafogo) and 63% (Coritiba).
On the defensive side: Botafogo keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Botafogo have failed to score in 30% of games; Coritiba in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Botafogo home games / Coritiba away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Botafogo play Coritiba?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 30% of Botafogo's recent matches and 59% of Coritiba's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Botafogo vs Coritiba usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 30% of Botafogo's recent games and 63% of Coritiba's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Botafogo and Coritiba tend to score early?
Botafogo have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Coritiba in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Botafogo run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Coritiba.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Botafogo beat Coritiba 4-1 at Estádio Nilton Santos, Regular Season - 17, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Botafogo 2.24 xG and Coritiba 0.56 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Botafogo beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Botafogo attack 1.23 / defence 0.58 against Coritiba attack 0.96 / defence 1.40, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Botafogo 75% | Draw 18% | Coritiba 7%, with Botafogo to win its most likely call at 75%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Botafogo 37%, Coritiba 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Botafogo's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Coritiba's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Botafogo arrived the stronger side — 1.72 PPG against 1.04. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Botafogo (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.26 average — above their attacking norm. Coritiba (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 2.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.