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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Botafogo and Corinthians share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Botafogo and Corinthians finished level at 1-1 at Estadio Olimpico Nilton Santos, Regular Season - 17, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Botafogo 1.57 xG and Corinthians 0.70 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Botafogo attack 1.21 / defence 0.91 against Corinthians attack 0.83 / defence 1.04, drawn from 52/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Botafogo 58% | Draw 25% | Corinthians 16%, with Botafogo to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Botafogo 38%, Corinthians 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Botafogo's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time, and conceded here.

Corinthians's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Botafogo arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.44. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights