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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Botafogo edge out Ceara 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Botafogo beat Ceara 3-2 at Estadio Olimpico Nilton Santos, Regular Season - 10, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Botafogo 1.80 xG and Ceara 0.58 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Botafogo beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Ceara outscored their 0.58 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Botafogo attack 1.31 / defence 0.84 against Ceara attack 0.80 / defence 1.07, drawn from 48/10 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Botafogo 66% | Draw 23% | Ceara 11%, with Botafogo to win its most likely call at 66%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights