🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Botafogo edge out Atletico-MG 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Botafogo beat Atletico-MG 1-0 at Estadio Olimpico Nilton Santos, Regular Season - 24, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Botafogo 1.59 xG and Atletico-MG 0.98 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Atletico-MG landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Botafogo attack 1.21 / defence 1.12 against Atletico-MG attack 0.79 / defence 0.97, drawn from 60/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Botafogo 52% | Draw 25% | Atletico-MG 23%, with Botafogo to win its most likely call at 52%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Botafogo 39%, Atletico-MG 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Botafogo's trading profile (59 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and duly kept one.

Atletico-MG's trading profile (59 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Botafogo arrived the stronger side — 1.95 PPG against 1.22. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Botafogo (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.83 average — tighter than their form line. Atletico-MG (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.97 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights