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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Serie A · Regular Season - 24

Kick-off

Sat 20 Sep 2025

22:30

Venue

Estadio Olimpico Nilton Santos

Competition

Serie A

Brazil

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Botafogo Win

52%

Botafogo

1.94

25%

Draw

3.98

23%

Atletico-MG

4.28

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 0

12.1%

Home win

Most likely

1 – 1

11.9%

Draw

2 – 0

9.6%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.59

Botafogo xG

Total xG

2.57

0.98

Atletico-MG xG

52%
25%
23%
BotafogoDrawAtletico-MG

1.94

52%

Home win

3.98

25%

Draw

4.28

23%

Away win

Goals Markets

73%

Over 1.5

1.37

27%

Under 1.5

3.70

48%

Over 2.5

2.08

52%

Under 2.5

1.92

26%

Over 3.5

3.85

74%

Under 3.5

1.35

12%

Over 4.5

8.33

88%

Under 4.5

1.14

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

50%

BTTS Yes

2.01

50%

BTTS No

1.99

Clean Sheet

37%

Botafogo

2.67

20%

Atletico-MG

4.91

Win to Nil

19%

Botafogo

5.18

5%

Atletico-MG

21.02

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 7.6 7.5 3.7 1.2 0.3 0.1
1 12.1 11.9 5.9 1.9 0.5 0.1
2 9.6 9.5 4.7 1.5 0.4 0.1
3 5.1 5.0 2.5 0.8 0.2
4 2.0 2.0 1.0 0.3 0.1
5 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.591
λ Away (xG) 0.983
Total xG 2.574
League avg home goals 1.356
League avg away goals 1.109
Botafogo attack strength 1.207
Botafogo defence strength 1.116
Atletico-MG attack strength 0.794
Atletico-MG defence strength 0.972
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 60 / 59