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Prediction vindicated as Bahia edge out Vitoria 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bahia beat Vitoria 2-1 at Arena Fonte Nova, Regular Season - 9, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bahia 1.24 xG and Vitoria 0.77 xG, a combined 2.00. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bahia attack 0.86 / defence 0.91 against Vitoria attack 1.01 / defence 1.00, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bahia 46% | Draw 31% | Vitoria 22%, with Bahia to win its most likely call at 46%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bahia 53%, Vitoria 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bahia's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Vitoria's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Bahia 1.39 PPG, Vitoria 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bahia win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights