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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Bahia edge out Sao Paulo 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bahia beat Sao Paulo 2-1 at Arena Fonte Nova, Regular Season - 11, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bahia 1.19 xG and Sao Paulo 0.79 xG, a combined 1.98. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Bahia beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bahia attack 0.98 / defence 0.94 against Sao Paulo attack 1.00 / defence 0.92, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bahia 44% | Draw 33% | Sao Paulo 23%, with Bahia to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bahia 51%, Sao Paulo 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bahia's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Sao Paulo's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Bahia 1.28 PPG, Sao Paulo 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bahia win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights