Bahia 1-2 Palmeiras – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Bahia at 45% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Bahia face Palmeiras.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis & Preview

Palmeiras travel to Arena Fonte Nova to take on Bahia in Serie A (matchday 10). The game is scheduled for Sunday 5 April 2026 at 23:30 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, Bahia stand at 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W D W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

At home, Bahia have gone 8W 0D 2L in their last 10 home games (2.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Bahia are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Across their last 10 games, Palmeiras have recorded 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D D L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.

Palmeiras's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 1D 5L (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Bahia) versus 1.50 (Palmeiras). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 8 H2H matches, Bahia have won 3, Palmeiras 4, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.

Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.8 per game across the 8 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 28 Sep 2025, ended Bahia 1–0 Palmeiras — a Bahia win.

With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

Trading Patterns

Bahia in-play and half-time data (last 76 games, 38 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; of the 22 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).

Palmeiras in-play and half-time data (last 76 games, 38 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bahia 54% versus Palmeiras 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bahia 51% | Palmeiras 47%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Bahia 1.42 xG and Palmeiras 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bahia attack 1.062 / defence 0.783 | Palmeiras attack 1.284 / defence 0.862. League average goals — home 1.552 / away 1.041. Palmeiras have an above-average attack rating of 1.284, which lifts their away xG to 1.05. Bahia have a tight defence (rating 0.783), which is pulling Palmeiras's projected output down. Data: built from Bahia's last 46 games and Palmeiras's last 47.

Result probabilities: Bahia 45% | Draw 28% | Palmeiras 27%. Fair-value odds: Bahia 2.22 | Draw 3.60 | Palmeiras 3.68. Bahia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Bahia at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bahia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 2.47 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.8 goals per game across 8 H2H matches.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Bahia 30% (last 10 home games) | Palmeiras 60% (last 10 away games).

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights