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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Bahia edge out Palmeiras 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bahia beat Palmeiras 1-0 at Arena Fonte Nova, Regular Season - 25, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bahia 1.40 xG and Palmeiras 1.28 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Palmeiras landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bahia attack 1.19 / defence 1.06 against Palmeiras attack 1.14 / defence 0.85, drawn from 61/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bahia 40% | Draw 26% | Palmeiras 34%, with Bahia to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bahia 52%, Palmeiras 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bahia's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.

Palmeiras's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Palmeiras arrived the stronger side — 2.03 PPG against 1.50. Form was overturned, with Bahia winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Bahia (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.83 average — tighter than their form line. Palmeiras (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.41 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights