Sign in Register
🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Serie A · Regular Season - 25

Kick-off

Sun 28 Sep 2025

20:00

Venue

Arena Fonte Nova

Competition

Serie A

Brazil

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Bahia Win

40%

Bahia

2.51

26%

Draw

3.86

34%

Palmeiras

2.92

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

12.3%

Draw

Most likely

1 – 0

9.7%

Home win

0 – 1

8.8%

Away win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.40

Bahia xG

Total xG

2.67

1.28

Palmeiras xG

40%
26%
34%
BahiaDrawPalmeiras

2.51

40%

Home win

3.86

26%

Draw

2.92

34%

Away win

Goals Markets

75%

Over 1.5

1.33

25%

Under 1.5

4.00

50%

Over 2.5

2.00

50%

Under 2.5

2.00

28%

Over 3.5

3.57

72%

Under 3.5

1.39

13%

Over 4.5

7.69

87%

Under 4.5

1.15

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

54%

BTTS Yes

1.84

46%

BTTS No

2.18

Clean Sheet

28%

Bahia

3.58

25%

Palmeiras

4.03

Win to Nil

11%

Bahia

9.00

8%

Palmeiras

11.77

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 6.9 8.8 5.6 2.4 0.8 0.2
1 9.7 12.3 7.9 3.3 1.1 0.3
2 6.7 8.6 5.5 2.3 0.7 0.2
3 3.1 4.0 2.5 1.1 0.3 0.1
4 1.1 1.4 0.9 0.4 0.1
5 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.395
λ Away (xG) 1.276
Total xG 2.671
League avg home goals 1.378
League avg away goals 1.055
Bahia attack strength 1.192
Bahia defence strength 1.062
Palmeiras attack strength 1.139
Palmeiras defence strength 0.849
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 61 / 60