🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Dominant Bahia run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Juventude.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bahia beat Juventude 3-0 at Arena Fonte Nova, Regular Season - 17, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bahia 2.34 xG and Juventude 0.66 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bahia attack 1.14 / defence 0.94 against Juventude attack 0.74 / defence 1.62, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bahia 75% | Draw 16% | Juventude 9%, with Bahia to win its most likely call at 75%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bahia 50%, Juventude 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bahia's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.

Juventude's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Bahia arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 1.08. Form held, and they took the win. Bahia (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.32 average — above their attacking norm. Juventude (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.88 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights