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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Bahia edge out Internacional 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bahia beat Internacional 1-0 at Arena Fonte Nova, Regular Season - 14, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bahia 2.23 xG and Internacional 0.85 xG, a combined 3.07. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Bahia fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Internacional landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bahia attack 1.25 / defence 0.79 against Internacional attack 1.08 / defence 1.22, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bahia 69% | Draw 18% | Internacional 13%, with Bahia to win its most likely call at 69%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bahia 53%, Internacional 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bahia's trading profile (66 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.

Internacional's trading profile (66 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Bahia 1.50 PPG, Internacional 1.52 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bahia win broke the near-deadlock. Internacional (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.16 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights