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Dominant Bahia run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Gremio.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bahia beat Gremio 4-0 at Arena Fonte Nova, Regular Season - 29, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bahia 1.49 xG and Gremio 0.91 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Bahia beat their projection by 2.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Gremio landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bahia attack 1.09 / defence 0.85 against Gremio attack 1.05 / defence 0.94, drawn from 65/66 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bahia 51% | Draw 26% | Gremio 23%, with Bahia to win its most likely call at 51%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bahia 52%, Gremio 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bahia's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.

Gremio's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Bahia 1.48 PPG, Gremio 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bahia win broke the near-deadlock. Bahia (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.44 average — above their attacking norm. Gremio (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.38 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights