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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Serie A · Regular Season - 29

Kick-off

Mon 20 Oct 2025

00:30

Venue

Arena Fonte Nova

Competition

Serie A

Brazil

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Bahia Win

51%

Bahia

1.97

26%

Draw

3.82

23%

Gremio

4.33

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 0

13.5%

Home win

Most likely

1 – 1

12.3%

Draw

2 – 0

10.0%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.49

Bahia xG

Total xG

2.40

0.91

Gremio xG

51%
26%
23%
BahiaDrawGremio

1.97

51%

Home win

3.82

26%

Draw

4.33

23%

Away win

Goals Markets

69%

Over 1.5

1.45

31%

Under 1.5

3.23

43%

Over 2.5

2.33

57%

Under 2.5

1.75

22%

Over 3.5

4.55

78%

Under 3.5

1.28

10%

Over 4.5

10.00

90%

Under 4.5

1.11

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

46%

BTTS Yes

2.16

54%

BTTS No

1.87

Clean Sheet

40%

Bahia

2.49

23%

Gremio

4.44

Win to Nil

20%

Bahia

4.92

5%

Gremio

19.23

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 9.0 8.2 3.8 1.1 0.3
1 13.5 12.3 5.6 1.7 0.4 0.1
2 10.0 9.2 4.2 1.3 0.3 0.1
3 5.0 4.6 2.1 0.6 0.1
4 1.9 1.7 0.8 0.2 0.1
5 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.491
λ Away (xG) 0.913
Total xG 2.404
League avg home goals 1.450
League avg away goals 1.017
Bahia attack strength 1.091
Bahia defence strength 0.852
Gremio attack strength 1.054
Gremio defence strength 0.942
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 65 / 66