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Shock result as Bahia defy the odds to beat Flamengo 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bahia beat Flamengo 1-0 at Arena Fonte Nova, Regular Season - 27, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bahia 1.21 xG and Flamengo 1.26 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Flamengo landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bahia attack 1.15 / defence 0.95 against Flamengo attack 1.29 / defence 0.76, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bahia 35% | Draw 27% | Flamengo 38%, with Flamengo to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Bahia win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bahia 52%, Flamengo 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bahia's trading profile (63 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.

Flamengo's trading profile (63 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Flamengo arrived the stronger side — 1.98 PPG against 1.48. Form was overturned, with Bahia winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Bahia (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.80 average — tighter than their form line. Flamengo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.60 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights