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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Serie A · Regular Season - 27

Kick-off

Sun 5 Oct 2025

22:30

Venue

Arena Fonte Nova

Competition

Serie A

Brazil

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Flamengo Win

35%

Bahia

2.85

27%

Draw

3.68

38%

Flamengo

2.65

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

12.9%

Draw

Most likely

0 – 1

10.7%

Away win

1 – 0

10.2%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.21

Bahia xG

Total xG

2.47

1.26

Flamengo xG

35%
27%
38%
BahiaDrawFlamengo

2.85

35%

Home win

3.68

27%

Draw

2.65

38%

Away win

Goals Markets

71%

Over 1.5

1.41

29%

Under 1.5

3.45

45%

Over 2.5

2.22

55%

Under 2.5

1.82

24%

Over 3.5

4.17

76%

Under 3.5

1.32

10%

Over 4.5

10.00

90%

Under 4.5

1.11

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

50%

BTTS Yes

1.99

50%

BTTS No

2.01

Clean Sheet

28%

Bahia

3.53

30%

Flamengo

3.34

Win to Nil

10%

Bahia

10.04

11%

Flamengo

8.88

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 8.5 10.7 6.7 2.8 0.9 0.2
1 10.2 12.9 8.1 3.4 1.1 0.3
2 6.2 7.8 4.9 2.1 0.6 0.2
3 2.5 3.1 2.0 0.8 0.3 0.1
4 0.8 0.9 0.6 0.3 0.1
5 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.207
λ Away (xG) 1.260
Total xG 2.467
League avg home goals 1.395
League avg away goals 1.025
Bahia attack strength 1.145
Bahia defence strength 0.949
Flamengo attack strength 1.295
Flamengo defence strength 0.755
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 63 / 63