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Prediction vindicated as Cruzeiro edge out Bahia 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Cruzeiro beat Bahia 1-2 at Arena Fonte Nova, Regular Season - 23, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bahia 1.05 xG and Cruzeiro 1.06 xG, a combined 2.12. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Cruzeiro outscored their 1.06 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bahia attack 1.22 / defence 0.95 against Cruzeiro attack 1.03 / defence 0.64, drawn from 58/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bahia 35% | Draw 30% | Cruzeiro 35%, with Bahia to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Cruzeiro win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bahia 52%, Cruzeiro 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bahia's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Cruzeiro's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Bahia 1.53 PPG, Cruzeiro 1.59 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cruzeiro win broke the near-deadlock. Bahia (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.79 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Cruzeiro (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.89 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights