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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Serie A · Regular Season - 23

Kick-off

Tue 16 Sep 2025

00:00

Venue

Arena Fonte Nova

Competition

Serie A

Brazil

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Cruzeiro Win

35%

Bahia

2.87

30%

Draw

3.35

35%

Cruzeiro

2.83

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

13.5%

Draw

Most likely

0 – 1

12.8%

Away win

1 – 0

12.7%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.05

Bahia xG

Total xG

2.12

1.06

Cruzeiro xG

35%
30%
35%
BahiaDrawCruzeiro

2.87

35%

Home win

3.35

30%

Draw

2.83

35%

Away win

Goals Markets

62%

Over 1.5

1.61

38%

Under 1.5

2.63

35%

Over 2.5

2.86

65%

Under 2.5

1.54

16%

Over 3.5

6.25

84%

Under 3.5

1.19

6%

Over 4.5

16.67

94%

Under 4.5

1.06

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

43%

BTTS Yes

2.35

57%

BTTS No

1.74

Clean Sheet

35%

Bahia

2.89

35%

Cruzeiro

2.87

Win to Nil

12%

Bahia

8.29

12%

Cruzeiro

8.13

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 12.1 12.8 6.8 2.4 0.6 0.1
1 12.7 13.5 7.2 2.5 0.7 0.1
2 6.7 7.1 3.8 1.3 0.4 0.1
3 2.4 2.5 1.3 0.5 0.1
4 0.6 0.7 0.3 0.1
5 0.1 0.1 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.054
λ Away (xG) 1.062
Total xG 2.116
League avg home goals 1.353
League avg away goals 1.085
Bahia attack strength 1.219
Bahia defence strength 0.950
Cruzeiro attack strength 1.030
Cruzeiro defence strength 0.639
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 58 / 60