Bahia vs Coritiba – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bahia at 58%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bahia vs Coritiba fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 36 as Bahia welcome Coritiba to Arena Fonte Nova. Kick-off is set for Sunday 22 November 2026 at 21:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Bahia have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: W L L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Arena Fonte Nova, Bahia have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Coritiba stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Coritiba's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Bahia carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.70 vs 1.20. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Bahia, 1 for Coritiba and 0 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 5.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 25 May 2026, ended 2–3 with Coritiba winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Bahia in-play and half-time data (31 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Coritiba in-play and half-time data (31 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bahia 61% versus Coritiba 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bahia 52% | Coritiba 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bahia 1.84 xG and Coritiba 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bahia attack 0.929 / defence 1.009 | Coritiba attack 0.749 / defence 1.371. League average goals — home 1.446 / away 1.165. Coritiba bring a strong defensive rating of 1.371 — this is suppressing Bahia's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 69 Bahia games / 31 Coritiba games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bahia 58% | Draw 26% | Coritiba 16%. Fair-value odds: Bahia 1.72 | Draw 3.85 | Coritiba 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Bahia (58%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bahia at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.72 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 5.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Bahia 60% | Coritiba 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bahia vs Coritiba | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Arena Fonte Nova • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Nov 2026, 21:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bahia 58% | Draw 26% | Coritiba 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 51% | xG Bahia 1.84 / Coritiba 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Bahia attack 0.929 / def 1.009 | Coritiba attack 0.749 / def 1.371 | league avg home 1.446 / away 1.165 • Poisson stance: Bahia (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.84
Bahia xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Coritiba xG
51%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bahia vs Coritiba kick off?
Bahia vs Coritiba is scheduled to kick off at 21:00 on Sunday 22 November 2026 at Arena Fonte Nova.
Where is Bahia vs Coritiba being played?
The match is being played at Arena Fonte Nova.
What competition is Bahia vs Coritiba part of?
Bahia vs Coritiba is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Bahia vs Coritiba?
Our statistical model gives Bahia a 58% chance of winning, Coritiba a 16% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Bahia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bahia vs Coritiba?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Bahia and Coritiba will score (BTTS).
Will Bahia vs Coritiba have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bahia and Coritiba?
Record (3 meetings): Bahia 2W | Draws 0 | Coritiba 1W.
What form are Bahia and Coritiba in?
Bahia (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. Coritiba (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Bahia's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against Coritiba's defensive record (1.37x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.84. The same calculation in reverse, Coritiba's attack versus Bahia's defence, projects 0.88 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 69/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.1%. Close behind: 2-0 (11.1%), 1-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bahia Win
58%
1.71
26%
3.89
16%
6.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.1%
Home win
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.84
Bahia xG
Total xG
2.72
0.88
Coritiba xG
1.71
58%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
6.29
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
41%
2.41
16%
6.30
Win to Nil
24%
4.14
3%
39.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.1 | 10.7 | 4.7 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.1 | 9.8 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 6.8 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.1 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bahia vs Coritiba?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Bahia and Coritiba expected to score?
The model projects 1.84 expected goals for Bahia and 0.88 for Coritiba, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Bahia vs Coritiba?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Bahia come into this having played 31 games, going 13W 10D 8L for 1.58 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-W-L.
On the other side, Coritiba sit at 1.26 PPG from 31 outings (10W 9D 12L), a run that reads D-L-L-D-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bahia on 1.58 PPG, Coritiba on 1.26. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Bahia's home form reads 7W 6D 3L across 16 games on their own ground, a 1.69 PPG return.
Away from home, Coritiba have taken 1.19 points per game from 16 outings (5W 4D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bahia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Bahia are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Coritiba are on 1.23 scored and 1.58 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bahia have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 31 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bahia
Current Season
Coritiba
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bahia and Coritiba in coming into this match?
Bahia have gone 13W 10D 8L in their last 31 games (1.58 PPG), while Coritiba have gone 10W 9D 12L in their last 31 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bahia at home or Coritiba away?
Bahia's home record (1.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bahia at home: 1.69 PPG; Coritiba away: 1.19 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Bahia and Coritiba runs to 3 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 25 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Last 3 Meetings
2
Bahia
0
Draws
1
Coritiba
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bahia and Coritiba?
From 3 meetings on record, Bahia have won 2, Coritiba have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Bahia and Coritiba last play each other?
They last met on 25 May 2026, when Coritiba 3-2 Bahia.
Who has won more matches between Bahia and Coritiba?
Bahia have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Bahia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Coritiba are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bahia 62%, Coritiba 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Bahia) and 56% (Coritiba).
On the defensive side: Bahia keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Coritiba in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bahia home games / Coritiba away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bahia play Coritiba?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Bahia's recent matches and 38% of Coritiba's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bahia vs Coritiba usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Bahia's recent games and 56% of Coritiba's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bahia and Coritiba tend to score early?
Bahia have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Coritiba in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.