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Prediction vindicated as Bahia edge out Botafogo 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bahia beat Botafogo 1-0 at Arena Fonte Nova, Regular Season - 7, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bahia 0.90 xG and Botafogo 0.66 xG, a combined 1.56. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bahia attack 0.83 / defence 0.95 against Botafogo attack 0.80 / defence 0.76, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bahia 37% | Draw 40% | Botafogo 23%, with the draw its most likely call at 40%. The actual Bahia win had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 21%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 49% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 31% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bahia 51%, Botafogo 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bahia's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.

Botafogo's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Botafogo arrived the stronger side — 1.88 PPG against 1.28. Form was overturned, with Bahia winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Bahia (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.95 average — tighter than their form line. Botafogo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.32 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights