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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Bahia edge out Atletico-MG 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bahia beat Atletico-MG 2-1 at Arena Fonte Nova, Regular Season - 13, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bahia 1.19 xG and Atletico-MG 0.82 xG, a combined 2.01. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Bahia beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bahia attack 1.07 / defence 0.95 against Atletico-MG attack 0.95 / defence 0.88, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bahia 44% | Draw 32% | Atletico-MG 25%, with Bahia to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bahia 50%, Atletico-MG 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bahia's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Atletico-MG's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Bahia 1.48 PPG, Atletico-MG 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bahia win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights