Avai 3-2 Goias – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Avai at 58%, yet other data sources diverge — this Avai vs Goias fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Avai and Goias meet at Estádio Aderbal Ramos da Silva in Serie A, Regular Season - 3. This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 26 April 2022 at 00:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Avai 1.53 xG and Goias 0.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Avai attack 0.817 / defence 1.022 | Goias attack 0.733 / defence 1.329. League average goals — home 1.410 / away 0.899. Goias bring a strong defensive rating of 1.329 — this is suppressing Avai's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 2 Avai games / 2 Goias games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Avai 58% | Draw 26% | Goias 16%. Fair-value odds: Avai 1.72 | Draw 3.85 | Goias 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Avai (58%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Avai at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.21 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Avai vs Goias | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Estádio Aderbal Ramos da Silva • Kick-off: Tuesday 26 Apr 2022, 00:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Avai 58% | Draw 26% | Goias 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 38% | xG Avai 1.53 / Goias 0.67 • Poisson strength factors: Avai attack 0.817 / def 1.022 | Goias attack 0.733 / def 1.329 | league avg home 1.410 / away 0.899 • Poisson stance: Avai (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Avai xG
Expected Goals
0.67
Goias xG
38%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Avai vs Goias kick off?
Avai vs Goias kicked off at 00:00 on Tuesday 26 April 2022 at Estádio Aderbal Ramos da Silva.
What was the final score in Avai vs Goias?
Avai 3 - 2 Goias.
Where is Avai vs Goias being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Aderbal Ramos da Silva.
What competition is Avai vs Goias part of?
Avai vs Goias is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Avai vs Goias?
Our statistical model gives Avai a 58% chance of winning, Goias a 16% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Avai the favourite.
Will both teams score in Avai vs Goias?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Avai and Goias will score (BTTS).
Will Avai vs Goias have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Avai and Goias?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Avai and Goias in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Avai's attack at 0.82x the league average against Goias's defence at 1.33x — combine the two and it projects 1.53 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Goias's attack (0.73x) against Avai's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 0.67.
These ratings are built from 2/2 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (12.9%), 1-1 (12.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Avai Win
58%
1.72
26%
3.89
16%
6.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.9%
Home win
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Avai xG
Total xG
2.21
0.67
Goias xG
1.72
58%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
6.13
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.60
62%
BTTS No
1.62
Clean Sheet
51%
1.96
22%
4.63
Win to Nil
30%
3.38
4%
28.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.0 | 7.4 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 16.9 | 11.4 | 3.8 | 0.9 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 12.9 | 8.7 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 6.6 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Avai vs Goias?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.4%.
How many goals are Avai and Goias expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Avai and 0.67 for Goias, a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Avai vs Goias?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Avai
Pre-Season
Goias
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 August 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Avai
1
Draws
0
Goias
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Avai and Goias?
From 2 meetings on record, Avai have won 1, Goias have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Avai and Goias last play each other?
They last met on 13 August 2022, when Goias 1-1 Avai.
Who has won more matches between Avai and Goias?
Avai have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Avai home games / Goias away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Avai edge out Goias 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Avai beat Goias 3-2 at Estádio Aderbal Ramos da Silva, Regular Season - 3, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Avai 1.53 xG and Goias 0.67 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Avai beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Goias outscored their 0.67 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Avai attack 0.82 / defence 1.02 against Goias attack 0.73 / defence 1.33, drawn from 2/2 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Avai 58% | Draw 26% | Goias 16%, with Avai to win its most likely call at 58%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.