Atletico-MG 2-2 Coritiba – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Atletico-MG at 71%, yet other data sources diverge — this Atletico-MG vs Coritiba fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 3 sees Coritiba travel to Estádio Raimundo Sampaio to take on Atletico-MG. The game is scheduled for Sunday 24 April 2022, 01:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Atletico-MG — All Games: 8W 1D 1L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 2.50 points per game. Last five: D W W W L. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Atletico-MG's form when playing at home: 10W 0D 0L across 10 games at Estádio Raimundo Sampaio this term (3.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 3.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.50 — Atletico-MG are significantly better at Estádio Raimundo Sampaio than their overall form suggests.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atletico-MG 2.15 xG and Coritiba 0.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atletico-MG attack 1.258 / defence 0.877 | Coritiba attack 0.889 / defence 1.203. League average goals — home 1.417 / away 0.885. Atletico-MG carry an above-average attack strength of 1.258 — their λ of 2.15 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Coritiba bring a strong defensive rating of 1.203 — this is suppressing Atletico-MG's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 40 Atletico-MG games / 2 Coritiba games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Atletico-MG 71% | Draw 18% | Coritiba 11%. Fair-value odds: Atletico-MG 1.41 | Draw 5.56 | Coritiba 9.09. The model has a clear lean to Atletico-MG (71%) — a 60pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Atletico-MG are the pick at 71% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.83 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atletico-MG vs Coritiba | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Estádio Raimundo Sampaio • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Apr 2022, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atletico-MG 71% | Draw 18% | Coritiba 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 44% | xG Atletico-MG 2.15 / Coritiba 0.69 • Poisson strength factors: Atletico-MG attack 1.258 / def 0.877 | Coritiba attack 0.889 / def 1.203 | league avg home 1.417 / away 0.885 • Poisson stance: Atletico-MG (71%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.15
Atletico-MG xG
Expected Goals
0.69
Coritiba xG
44%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Atletico-MG vs Coritiba kick off?
Atletico-MG vs Coritiba kicked off at 01:00 on Sunday 24 April 2022 at Estádio Raimundo Sampaio.
What was the final score in Atletico-MG vs Coritiba?
Atletico-MG 2 - 2 Coritiba.
Where is Atletico-MG vs Coritiba being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Raimundo Sampaio.
What competition is Atletico-MG vs Coritiba part of?
Atletico-MG vs Coritiba is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Atletico-MG vs Coritiba?
Our statistical model gives Atletico-MG a 71% chance of winning, Coritiba a 11% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Atletico-MG the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atletico-MG vs Coritiba?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Atletico-MG and Coritiba will score (BTTS).
Will Atletico-MG vs Coritiba have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Atletico-MG and Coritiba?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Atletico-MG and Coritiba in?
Atletico-MG (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-W-W-L. Atletico-MG home split: 3.00 PPG from 10 | GF 2.30 / GA 0.80 | CS 4.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Atletico-MG's attack at 1.26x the league average against Coritiba's defence at 1.20x — combine the two and it projects 2.15 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Coritiba's attack versus Atletico-MG's defence, projects 0.69 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (40/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.5%), 1-1 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atletico-MG Win
71%
1.41
18%
5.45
11%
9.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
3 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.15
Atletico-MG xG
Total xG
2.83
0.69
Coritiba xG
1.41
71%
Home win
5.45
18%
Draw
9.37
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
50%
1.99
12%
8.54
Win to Nil
36%
2.81
1%
80.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.6 | 8.7 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.5 | 9.3 | 3.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 9.7 | 6.7 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 5.2 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 5 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Atletico-MG vs Coritiba?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Atletico-MG and Coritiba expected to score?
The model projects 2.15 expected goals for Atletico-MG and 0.69 for Coritiba, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Atletico-MG vs Coritiba?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 71%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atletico-MG
Pre-Season
Coritiba
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Atletico-MG and Coritiba runs to 5 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 19 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Coritiba have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Atletico-MG's record when hosting Coritiba specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Atletico-MG
1
Draws
2
Coritiba
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Atletico-MG and Coritiba?
From 5 meetings on record, Atletico-MG have won 2, Coritiba have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Atletico-MG and Coritiba last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2026, when Coritiba 2-0 Atletico-MG.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atletico-MG home games / Coritiba away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Atletico-MG and Coritiba share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estádio Raimundo Sampaio, Regular Season - 3, as Atletico-MG and Coritiba drew 2-2 in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atletico-MG 2.15 xG and Coritiba 0.69 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Coritiba outscored their 0.69 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atletico-MG attack 1.26 / defence 0.88 against Coritiba attack 0.89 / defence 1.20, drawn from 40/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Atletico-MG 71% | Draw 18% | Coritiba 11%, with Atletico-MG to win its most likely call at 71%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.