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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Atletico-MG cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Sport Recife.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Atletico-MG beat Sport Recife 3-1 at MRV Arena, Regular Season - 14, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Atletico-MG 1.16 xG and Sport Recife 0.66 xG, a combined 1.82. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Atletico-MG beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atletico-MG attack 0.79 / defence 0.92 against Sport Recife attack 0.71 / defence 1.06, drawn from 63/25 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Atletico-MG 48% | Draw 31% | Sport Recife 21%, with Atletico-MG to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 54% and landed. Over 3.5 was 11% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 33% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atletico-MG 36%, Sport Recife 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Atletico-MG's trading profile (25 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Sport Recife's trading profile (25 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Atletico-MG arrived the stronger side — 1.16 PPG against 0.64. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Atletico-MG (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.18 average — above their attacking norm. Sport Recife (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.55 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights