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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Gremio cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Atletico-MG.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Gremio beat Atletico-MG 1-3 at MRV Arena, Regular Season - 20, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Atletico-MG 1.60 xG and Gremio 0.78 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Gremio outscored their 0.78 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atletico-MG attack 1.08 / defence 0.89 against Gremio attack 0.83 / defence 1.14, drawn from 55/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Atletico-MG 57% | Draw 25% | Gremio 18%, with Atletico-MG to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a Gremio win, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atletico-MG 51%, Gremio 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Atletico-MG's trading profile (55 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Gremio's trading profile (55 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Atletico-MG 1.29 PPG, Gremio 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gremio win broke the near-deadlock. Atletico-MG (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Gremio (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.92 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights